Dr. Eric Schmidt, Chief Technology Officer for Sun Microsystems, recently
projected that by the year 2000, the Internet will connect 187 million
computers around the world, thus becoming the most rapidly developed and
diffused new technology in human history.
The Internet is such a potent instrument of technological change that we
frequently overlook the fact that it is also a major enabler of new forms of
economic and social structure. Although its most immediate effect is on all
forms of computing and communications, the secondary effects are also
extremely broad.
In thinking about how to harness the Internet phenomenon for good social and
economic purposes, it is useful to sort out the primary mechanisms by which
the network changes behavior. I call these Internet attributes the three
Ds�distributed systems architectures, disaggregated market structures, and
disintermediated organizational relationships.
Distributed Architecture
From its earliest origins in the Pentagon, the Internet has been designed as
a distributed system. The "flatness" of the Internet is a jealously guarded
feature inspiring near religious fervor, especially when contrasted with the
hierarchical engineering of traditional telecommunications systems.
Interestingly enough, Internet design predates the arrival of the desktop
computer, whose powerful capacities have enhanced the original design many
times. The power of TCP/IP provides the network foundation for an expanding
universe of clients and servers around which computer applications are now
rapidly being organized. The familiar adage, "every client a server,"
underlines the inherent interactivity of the Internet and the voice it gives
each of us on the network.
Disaggregated Markets
Digital technology, implemented in cheap semiconductor chips and fiber optic
transmission systems, is the engine driving the Internet revolution.
Inexpensive and flexible digital designs have lowered the historically high
cost of entry to communications enterprises. Innovations such as the World
Wide Web are the "garage startups" of our time, opening niche markets to
thousands of entrepreneurs. And the continued rapid growth of the Internet
expands this unique new marketing channel by millions of customers per year
at nearly zero cost.
Although some forecasts have seen commerce on the Internet as analogous to
home shopping on television, the greater impact will come from the ability
of the average consumer to comparison shop globally. With the imminent
arrival of shopping "agents," buyers will be able to nearly instantaneously
determine what sources of supply exist for the product they are interested
in and crosscheck current pricing and delivery terms. The implications for
more open and competitive markets are enormous.
Disintermediation
In the longer run, perhaps the greatest contribution of the Internet and its
related technologies to society will be its ability to bring organizations
and institutions closer to the individual. Political and diplomatic
relationships based on the power to control information are being rapidly
undermined by the network. Community servers are already renewing the forces
of popular democracy at the local level. State and federal bureaucrats are
improving their image with agency Web pages and soon-to-be electronic
commerce. The full text of bills before the Congress is now available at the
Library of Congress' Thomas Home Page.
The disintermediation of political structures is mirrored in other
organizational formats which have depended on professional or middlemen
relationships for their existence. Many professions that have effectively
restrained trade in their specialties for generations will see new
competition from network sources in their areas of expertise. A new
structure of "value added" professional services will likely arise in which
the current monopoly of professional licensees gives way to a more open
structure in which experts truly give expert advice and are compensated
appropriately for it.
3-D Education
Education, especially higher education, will feel the impact of the 3-D's
strongly in years to come. Until now, university investments in computing
and networking technology have served to improve the status quo. But the
2,500-year-old model of knowledge in society is giving way to new
technology. The paradigm of books stored in libraries surrounded by scholars
and students isn't necessary any more and the pressures of the 21st century
workplace will bring rapid change. The network will enable, and society will
demand, a new paradigm of the student as being anyone, anywhere, anytime.
The pressures on educational institutions to adapt or atrophy will be
irresistible.
Abstract structural concepts such as the three Ds don't produce good social
outcomes by themselves. But they are powerful tools for the Internet
community to employ in ensuring that the network we value so highly is used
to benefit society and not to damage it.
Michael M. Roberts is vice president of Educom.
� 1995 Educom.